12 Rounds or Less at the Palms Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada, for the IBF and IBO Light Heavyweight Titles

Odds: Dawson -265, Tarver +225

Antonio Tarver: 27-4-0 with 19 knockouts.

Height: 6 feet, 2 inches

Weight (Last Fight): 173 and 3/4 pounds

Reach: 75 inches

Last Fight: Unanimous decision victory over Clinton Woods on April 12, 2008

Chad Dawson: 26-0-0 with 17 knockouts.

Height: 6 feet, 3 inches

Weight (Last Fight): 173 and 3/4 pounds

Reach: 76 1/2 inches

Last Fight: Unanimous decision victory over Glen Johnson on April 12, 2008

Analysis:

For my money, this is the premier fight in the light heavyweight division this year. Antonio Tarver is one of the division’s biggest stars, with a solid record that includes impressive wins over Roy Jones, Jr. and Glen Johnson. Due to turn 40 years old next month, he still looks and fights like a man several years younger than that. His opponent, Chad Dawson, is 13 years Tarver’s junior and one of the biggest rising stars in the entire sport. With his agility, hand speed, and power, Dawson is expected to dominate the light heavyweight division for years to come.

However, his last bout, a controversial decision over veteran Glen Johnson, raised serious questions about Dawson’s ability to handle pressure, as well as his tactical pedigree. Dominating the fight early, Dawson gradually lost ground to the wily Johnson, who was able to pressure the younger fighter and hurt him on several occasions. After watching that fight, Tarver declared that Dawson had been exposed. As usual, Tarver has been confident that he will win, while Dawson, normally reticent in the public eye, has left no doubt that he dislikes the brash Tarver.

Glen Johnson, who has fought both Tarver and Dawson, thinks that Tarver can win the fight if he stays busy and turns the bout into a slugfest. Whether Tarver will do that remains to be seen, as he usually prefers to fight from the outside and control his opponents with an effective jab. That will probably not work against Dawson, who has superior foot speed and can make the veteran Tarver look slow and plodding from the outside.

Prediction:

In this battle of southpaws, we think Dawson will come away with a close but relatively clear decision. Tarver will try to be the aggressor in the fight but will receive as much as he gives. When Tarver tires of taking the fight to Dawson, the latter will mostly outbox Tarver from the outside and hang on for the win. It should be a great fight.