12 Rounds or Less at the Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Odds: Pavlik -420, Hopkins +330
Kelly Pavlik: 34-0 with 30 knockouts
Height: 6 feet, 2 1/2 inches
Weight (Last Fight): 159 1/2 pounds
Reach: 75 inches
Last Fight: Third Round TKO of Gary Lockett on June 7, 2008
Bernard Hopkins: 48-5-1 with 32 knockouts
Height: 6 feet, 1 inch
Weight (Last Fight): 173 pounds
Reach: 75 inches
Last Fight: Split Decision Loss to Joe Calzaghe on April 19, 2008
Analysis:
This fight seems more intruiging every time I look at it. On paper, it should be something of a mismatch. Pavlik, at 26 years of age, is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in boxing. Though his resume is a little thin for a man with an undefeated record after 34 fights, he’s looked tremendously impressive in wins over Edison Miranda, Jermaine Taylor, and Gary Lockett. He has great power in both hands (especially his right), decent hand speed, and a work rate that usually sees him throwing around 80 to 100 punches per round. And these are hard punches, not the slaps you often see from fighters with high work rates.
By contrast, Bernard Hopkins, one of the greatest middleweights in boxing history, is clearly past his prime. Now 43 years old, Hopkins has learned how to adapt his craft to his declining skills by picking his spots and making his opponents miss. He can still land punches with power, but as his loss to Calzaghe in April showed, he tends to tire as the fight progresses, and he can no longer keep up the kind of work rate usually necessary to put rounds in the bank. That said, he has a world-class chin and has never been knocked out or really convincingly beaten.
Seen from this perspective, the odds, which cast Pavlik as the heavy favorite, are not surprising. But there are one or two causes for concern for the Pavlik camp. First, Pavlik has never fought anyone like Hopkins. Hopkins is an evasive, defensive fighter. He will make you miss. Pavlik’s most impressive wins have come over opponents who tend to stand right in front of you, making it easy for Pavlik to throw the powerful hooks and uppercuts that stopped fighters like Miranda and Taylor. Hopkins will be different. He will move around more. He will roll with punches better. He will block more punches on his gloves. Pavlik is going to have to work harder than ever before to inflict damage.
That leads to the second cause for concern: Pavlik’s weight. Pavlik, long and lanky, is a natural middleweight. The one time he fought north of 160 pounds, in his rematch against Jermaine Taylor, he did not look as impressive. He won the fight, but he was unable to double up on his jab or to keep the same work rate that had overwhelmed Taylor in their first matchup, fought at the middleweight limit of 160 pounds. Now Pavlik is moving up to a catch-weight of 170 pounds. How will he handle the extra weight? No one really knows. If the second Taylor fight is any indication, It will probably force him to adopt a slower workrate, which will play to Hopkins’s advantage. Hopkins has had the most trouble with fighters who have great hand speed (Calzaghe, Taylor, Jones). Pavlik at 170 will probably not present that kind of problem for the Executioner.
Those caveats aside, there is a bottom line to all this. Hopkins is 43 years old. In his last fight against Calzaghe, he clearly faded as the rounds mounted, prompting his then-trainer, Freddie Roach, to implore him to retire. Instead, Hopkins got a new trainer. He will need a better performance than the one he gave against Calzaghe to defeat Pavlik, because even if Pavlik is hurt by the extra weight, he will still be able to outwork Hopkins and bank more rounds. Pavlik, who has said he wants to be the first man ever to knock out Hopkins, could become too aggressive and get caught with something that would send him to the canvas. But if Pavlik could peel himself off the canvas to knock out Jermaine Taylor, he will be sure to keep going after Hopkins. Thus, if Hopkins wants to win this fight, he needs to angle for a decision. If he wants to win a decision, he needs to throw more punches than he did against Calzaghe. Throwing a punch and then holding, as he has done in recent fights, will not be enough. He must throw more. To do that, he will have to turn back the clock a couple years and summon the fighter who so convincingly dispatched Antonio Tarver in June 2006. That fight was only 2 1/2 years ago, but 2 1/2 years is a long time for a man over 40 years of age.
Prediction:
Pavlik will fail in his quest to knock out Hopkins, but he will do enough to earn a decision. Ultimately, his work rate will be too much for Hopkins, who will keep the fight close for a few rounds, and maybe even score a knockdown. But by the later rounds the difference in age and energy will really begin to tell, and Pavlik will pull away for a relatively narrow (around 116-112) decision.
Given the odds for this fight, though, I would be tempted to put down some money on Hopkins. There are enough unknowns in this matchup to make the betting line attractive for a wager on the underdog. And I have enough doubts about Pavlik to advise against laying down money on a heavy favorite for minimum return.
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